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GDP, Gross Domestic Product |
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increase |
growth |
Description
It is the main indicator of the current state of the economy. It consists of: GDP = C + I + S + E – M, where C – consumption, I – investment, S – government spending, E – exports, M – imports. Consumption makes up the biggest part of the GDP, e.g. in the US it amounts to 70% of the GDP, in Japan to more than 60%. Usually it is presented quarterly, and is published 3 times as following: advance, provisional (revised) and final figures. The GDP can be presented as a percentage change to the previous period or as an absolute number, which is the total amount of all goods and services produced in the economy during a specified period. Has a significant effect on the market. The growth of the GDP leads to currency strengthening.
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CPI, Consumer Price Index |
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increase |
decline |
Description
It is the main indicator of the level of inflation in a country. It represents a change of the price for the fixed basket of goods and services: food, transport, utility costs, health services etc. There are two variations of the index: general CPI and main (Core) CPI, which excludes food and energy costs and is considered to be more precise. Each index is published twice as preliminary and final figures. The accepted level of inflation is around 2-3%, its increase leads to currency devaluation. However, low levels of inflation can also harm the economy, negatively affect consumption and manufacturing and cause currency depreciation. Usually, central banks have their inflationary targets that they use to correct their monetary policy. The index is published monthly.
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Interest Rate, Federal Funds rate, Official Bank rate, Official Cash rate |
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increase |
growth |
Description
These are the rates set by central banks (in the US, by the Fed Open Market Committee) to conduct transactions with other financial institutions of the country. Interest rates help central banks influence retail banks interest rates, inflation and value of national currencies. The interest rate increase leads to the inflation reduction and currency strengthening, while rates decrease causes the opposite. The interest rate change is decided upon by the central bank board (in the US, by the Fed Open Market Committee) and can be done several times during the year.
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Unemployment rate |
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increase |
decline |
Description
It represents the ratio of the number of unemployed individuals over 18 year old to the total number of labor force in the country. Only those registered as unemployed are counted. The figure has a significant effect on the market. The normal level of unemployment is thought to be around 4-5%. For regulators, unemployment rate is one of the target measures when considering monetary policy changes. The figure is published monthly.
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Industrial production |
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increase |
growth |
Description
Industrial production is one of the main indicators of the current state of the economy. The index represents a change of the volume of industrial production and utility services in the country. It includes manufacturing, mining and energy. The growth of the index leads to currency strengthening. It is published monthly.
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Retail sales |
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increase |
growth |
Description
The index represents retail sales volume change and shows the level of effective consumer demand. Retail sales usually make up a significant share of the GDP. Thus sales reduction represents economy slowdown and negatively affects the national currency. There are two variations of the index: general index and retail sales excluding transportation and durable goods. The second variation is thought to be more precise as car sales and petrol costs are highly volatile, however has smaller effect on the market. The index is published monthly.
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NonFarm Payrolls - NFPR (USA) |
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increase |
growth |
Description
One of the main indicators of the state of the American economy, which represents the number of new jobs created outside of the agricultural sector in the US and shows the level of employment in the country. Is calculated by taking into account employee’s payrolls. An increase of the index represents an increase in the number of employed and leads to currency strengthening. The index is published monthly, usually on the first Friday of the month.
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ZEW Survey – economic sentiment ( EU, Germany ) |
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increase |
growth |
Description
The index is published separately for Germany and the Eurozone. The most important is the German data, as Germany is the leading economy in the EU. The index represents business sentiment and is measured on the basis of 350 surveys of investors and analysts by the German ZEW Institute (Zentrum fur Europaischе Wirtschaftsforsсhung). Practically, the index measures the difference between the number of market participants feeling positively and the number of feeling negatively. If the majority of respondents feels optimistic, the index is going to be positive. An increase in index strengthens the Euro. The index is published monthly.
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Tankan large manufacturing index and Tankan non-manufacturing index ( Japan ) |
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increase |
growth |
Description
Economic report that is published quarterly by the Department of research and statistics of Japan. It consists of Large Manufacturing index and Non-manufacturing index and the first one is being more influential on the market than the latter. The index is created on the basis of surveys of around 8-10thousand Japanese small and large companies. Businesses are asked about general market conditions, supply and demand, production and distribution, price level, profit, employment, investments and taxation. The aim is to determine whether the general business outlook is positive or negative. The index is one of the most important economic indicators in Japan, its increase significantly strengthens the Yen.
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Initial jobless claims (USA) |
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increase |
decline |
Description
One of the main employment indicators in the US. Initial and secondary claims are published separately, however initial claims are thought to be the most important. The growth of the index represents unemployment increase in the country, which puts the pressure on the USD. It is published weekly on Thursdays and is very volatile. Thus when analyzed, 4 weeks or quarter averaged figures are used. Sometimes the index is used as a forward indicator of Non-farm payrolls.
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Trade balance |
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increase |
growth |
Description
The index represents a difference between country’s exports and imports, or the ratio between the total price of all exports and total price of all imports. If the total price of exports is more than that of imports, there is a trade surplus, otherwise there is a trade deficit. Trade surplus, or a reduction in trade deficit, supports the national currency. The index is published monthly.
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Current account |
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increase |
growth |
Description
The index represents a difference between the total amount of payments coming into the country and the total amount of payments coming out of the country. If payments in are higher than payments out, there is a balance of payments surplus, otherwise there is a balance of payments deficit. An increase in the balance of payments surplus, as well as the decrease in its deficit positively affects the national currency.
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Building permits |
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increase |
growth |
Description
The index registers all new building permits in the US. It represents the level of business activity in construction sector as well as the standards of living in the country. An increase in index leads to the currency strengthening. Published monthly.
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New home sales |
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increase |
growth |
Description
One of the most important property market indicators, represents the amount of house sales on the primary market. An increase in house constructions and sales stimulates the growth of the number of allied industries as well as of the labor market. An increase in index leads to currency strengthening. Published monthly.
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Consumer Confidence |
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increase |
growth |
Description
The index is based on surveys of the households and represents consumer confidence. It consists of two parts: evaluation of the current state of the economy (40%) and consumer expectations (60%). It is used for employment tendency forecast and evaluation of the state of the economy. An increase in index constitutes positive economic prospects and leads to currency strengthening. Published monthly.
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Manufacturing PMI |
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increase |
growth |
Description
The index represents business activity in country’s manufacturing industry. It is based on surveys of sales managers in leading companies across all manufacturing sector and measures their opinion of the current state of the economy and its future prospects. The 50 points mark is the key level of the index, above which the business activity in manufacturing is on the rise and below is declining. The index is released by two institutions – Markit and ISM, the former is considered more important. An index increase leads to currency strengthening. Published monthly.
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Services PMI |
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increase |
growth |
Description
The index represents business activity in service sector. It is based on surveys of executives in private sector service companies and measures their opinion of the current state of the economy and its future prospects. The 50 points mark is the key level of the index, above which the business activity in service sector is growing and below is declining. An increase in index leads to currency strengthening. However, it is considered less important than Manufacturing PMI.
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Factory orders |
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increase |
growth |
Description
The index represents a change of the number of manufacturing orders compared to the previous month. It consists of orders for durable goods (cars, machinery etc.) and orders for non-durable goods(food, light industry goods etc.). An index increase indicates a positive sign for the economy and leads to currency strengthening. Published monthly.
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Durable goods orders |
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increase |
growth |
Description
The index represents a change in the number of orders compared to the previous month. Durable goods are those with expiration date of over 3 years (cars, furniture, machinery etc.). It represents consumer confidence and is viewed as a forward indicator of manufacturing activity. Often it is considered without transportation, as it is highly volatile. An index increase leads to currency strengthening.
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Money supply М4, М3, М2, М1 |
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increase |
decline |
Description
M1, M2 and M3 aggregates represent money supply. M1 includes cash and bank deposits, M2 is M1 plus savings accounts, and M3 is M2 plus large money deposits. Does not have a big influence on the market but can be a forward indicator of inflation.
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